New Pacific, We Hardly Knew Ye
A Unique Business Plan, Old Planes, and No Chance
Right before Thanksgiving last week, New Pacific Airlines shut down.
Now, for those of you that are not big airline nerds, you’re probably asking “What is New Pacific?”
Well, New Pacific started its life as Northern Pacific Airlines¹, with a plan to use 757’s to connect passengers from the US to destinations in Asia via Anchorage, Alaska. They launched with a little bit of fanfare at the San Bernardino Airport back in January of 2022. I happened to be there for the ceremonies!
Now, airlines fold all the time.² In the short life of Al on the Airlines, we’ve already made it pretty clear what a tough business this is. But rarely have I been present at the very start of a carrier’s life and then been able to watch things play out in real time.
The launch itself checked a lot of the patented airline start-up boxes.
Investor with money to burn who wanted to get into the airline game?
Check. Northern/New was backed by an early crypto investor.³
CEO with enough airline experience to lend credibility and sell the plan?
Check. Initial CEO Rob McKinney did his best to turn people into believers.
Business plan based on a model that seemed to work already?
Check. The US to Asia via ANC model was a copycat of Icelandair’s successful US to Europe via Reykjavik model, where stopovers in Iceland are encouraged.⁴
Slick new marketing and livery⁵?
Check. Even us airline cynical types remarked at the cool new paint job as the plane was pulled into the hangar. (We did not get to see the interior. We knew why.⁶)
Did any of us think it was going to work?
Not really.
The chances of any new airline being successful are already low, but New Pacific had some insurmountable challenges right off the bat. In January of 2022, travel to Asia was still highly restricted with no approvals in sight. In just another month, Russia would invade Ukraine and shutdown airspace that would be necessary on the long routes to Asia.
After the Asia market became a non-starter, New Pacific tried to make a go of it by starting a limited domestic schedule out of Ontario Airport.⁷ It then became a charter-only carrier in a last gasp attempt to survive. Three business models in three years is rarely a recipe for success.
Despite the warranted skepticism of the initial plan, there is no joy when airline shuts down, especially on the day before Thanksgiving.⁸ It usually happens abruptly. People lose jobs, suppliers lose revenue and customers lose their flight home.
Still, we all know that there will another new entrant at some point. That’s because entrepreneurs, investors, and people with crazy money to burn cannot help themselves. There’s an allure to this business that cannot be denied. It’s one thing to start your own company or even open up a storefront.
It’s another to pull a sweet-looking plane into a hangar.
Notes
“Northern” Pacific was sued by the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad for trademark infringement claiming it was a heritage brandname for them; one of my jobs at a large Atlanta-based airline was to make sure we used our old brands for this very reason
My friend Brett Snyder, the OG of snarky airline commentary, does an annual wrap-up of the “Airlines We Lost,” and unfortunately he is never short of material
There was even a crypto element to New Pacific frequent flyer scheme that I couldn’t quite figure out
The geographic disparities between connecting via Anchorage versus connecting via Reykjavik are significant, although both places have plenty of volcanoes
Livery is the official term for paint job; we will definitely get into liveries . . . probably too much . . . I have literally watched airline paint dry
A colleague of mine remarked that he had helped take delivery of that exact plane when it was delivered to US Airways . . . in the nineties
If ONT-LAS isn’t a last-gasp route, I don’t know what is
New Pacific’s sister airline Ravn Alaska also shut down earlier this year; best of luck to everyone affected by this